Kindgo
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This is from Stratfor Intelligence.
Could Isaiah 17:1 be nearing?
Isaiah 17:1 (KJV) The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken
away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.
With this commentary and the "Signs of the Times" e-mail in mind,
these are certainly challenging times, but the good news is our Lord
Jesus Christ will soon be glorified in Jerusalem.
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Syria, Israel and U.S. Iraq Strategy
23 July 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=205402
Summary
The Israeli government has threatened strikes on military targets in
Syria in response to further cross-border attacks by the Hezbollah
militant group. Israel is trying to make clear the internal risks
Syrian President Bashar Assad will face if his country's military
capabilities are destroyed. This also would serve U.S. interests by
helping to neutralize the Syrian threat before a possible campaign
against Iraq.
Analysis
Syria is coming under increased pressure over its policy toward
Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah. A recent U.N. report on
Syrian policy in Lebanon criticized the Lebanese government's
unwillingness to assert its authority over the southern part of the
country, and by default permitting Hezbollah to continue
cross-border attacks against Israel. Syria's deputy ambassador to
the United Nations criticized the report as "one-sided," daily
newspaper Al Hayat reported.
Syria exercises substantial control over the Lebanese government and
apparently has decided to support Hezbollah operations in southern
Lebanon. For example, the Sunday Times of London reported the
weekend of July 20 that Syrian President Bashar Assad recently
ordered his officers to use the military's arsenal to supply
Hezbollah directly. This announcement has put the Syrians on a
collision course with the Israelis.
The Times also reported that Israel has now delivered three warnings
to the Syrian government concerning Hezbollah's operations. Two were
transmitted through the United States, the other through Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak.
The last warning was the most ominous. The Israeli government
reportedly told the Syrians that if Hezbollah again attacks a target
inside Israel, retaliation will be taken against military targets in
Syria. Specifically, Israel would attack an armored brigade in
southern Syria from the air, followed by artillery fire and perhaps
an air-mobile assault. The goal would be the complete destruction of
a Syrian brigade containing up to 100 tanks.
This threat is not trivial. Syria used to be able to rely on the
Soviet Union for quick military re-supplies, but that is no longer
possible. Therefore, the loss of a Syrian armored brigade would
constitute a serious blow to the country's military capability. And
if Israel can destroy one armored brigade, it can destroy more.
Such a loss would not only pose a strategic challenge to Syria, it
also could threaten young Assad's government. His credibility as a
leader still has not been fully tested, and there are those in the
government who do not take him seriously. Since the military is the
foundation of Syria's state, if Assad puts the country into a
situation where its military capability is seriously degraded, the
consequences could be severe.
The Israelis clearly feel that Assad does not understand the risks
he is running. That is why they have signaled to him so explicitly,
virtually revealing the broad outlines of their operational plan.
This serves a psychological purpose as well, emphasizing the
imbalance between the military powers of the two countries. Israel
is saying that it does not need the element of surprise to have its
way with Syria's army.
Israel wants Syria to stop Hezbollah's attacks in order to avoid
being drawn back into the endless and costly game it tried to give
up when it withdrew from Lebanon in 2000. The implicit understanding
between Israel and Syria regarding the Jewish state's withdrawal was
that Damascus, via the Lebanese government, would take
responsibility for controlling Hezbollah.
In return Israel would recognize Lebanon as being in Syria's sphere
of influence. Israel does not want to open another military front in
the north and it is genuinely hoping that Assad, after looking into
the abyss, will assert himself.
However, possible future U.S. military operations against Iraq also
must be factored into the situation. As it currently plays out, the
United States has two geographical platforms from which to stage an
operation against Baghdad. Turkey is the most important but also the
most reluctant. Jordan is seemingly more willing, but this option
poses logistical problems.
Both also have beef with Syria. At various points in history, the
Syrians have moved against the Hashemite kingdom in Jordan. The
Turks, charging Syrian meddling in the affairs of the Kurdish ethnic
group, threatened war against Syria several years ago. Neither
country is prepared to play Washington's game unless the threat from
Syria is neutralized.
For its part, the United States is engaged in an extensive
post-Sept. 11 courtship of Syria. There are indications that
Washington is still trying to lock down an assurance from Damascus
in the event of a war on Iraq. The U.S. government also recently has
sent several diplomatic envoys -- including U.S. Secretary of State
Colin Powell -- to the country.
In the event of a war with Baghdad, it is highly probable that the
Syrians would not become engaged -- but the threat would remain. The
United States would be operating with fairly light forces, and any
troop buildup (in Jordan in particular) would be difficult to secure
if the Syrians made a serious attempt at intervention.
Although such an outcome is unlikely, Washington's military planners
will not be able to rely solely on a verbal promise from Syria. They
also will seek a means to keep Damascus out of the conflict
entirely. Plan A -- the seduction of Syria by the United States --
continues. Plan B is the neutralization of Syria through fear.
The Israelis are threatening Syria with the destruction of a
substantial part of its armed forces. Israel has its own reasons for
making these threats, but the warnings also serve U.S. interests.
The hope is that Assad, recognizing the imminence of disaster, will
not only agree to rein in Hezbollah, but also will not interfere
with Washington's Iraq plans.
Israel is not bluffing. It has its hands full with the Palestinians,
and the psychological pressure on the Israeli public is enormous. It
cannot afford a protracted guerrilla war on its northern flank.
Israel likely will strike at Syria and try to do so decisively. It
would be a relief, in a sense, for Israel's military leadership, as
it would represent a return to the kind of conventional war for
which the Israel Defense Force was trained and at which it excels.
From the American viewpoint, an Israeli attack on Syria would pose
serious political problems among Arab governments. On the other
hand, these governments are not being very helpful as it stands
right now in dealing with a core American issue: Iraq. From this
perspective, there is not much to lose.
The worst-case scenario would be a shift in Egypt's position. It is
therefore interesting that, first, Israel turned to Mubarak to
deliver a message to Syria, second, that Mubarak agreed to deliver
it and, third, the Israelis now have made it public that Mubarak was
their messenger. They have done everything possible to keep Mubarak
in place.
If Assad does not shift his policy, the United States will regard an
Israeli operation against Syria as a necessary part of American
strategy against Iraq. In a way, the U.S. position will be that the
attack was made necessary by the unwillingness of the Arab
governments -- Jordan excepted -- to cooperate in a war against
Iraq. Therefore, the Israeli ultimatum to Syria, whether it causes
the country to change its policies or lose its tanks, will serve
U.S. strategic interests.
--
Koenig's International News - http://watch.org
--------------------
God bless,
Kindgo
Inside the will of God there is no failure. Outside the will of God there is no success.
Posts: 4320 | From: Sunny Florida | Registered: Jun 2002
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