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Posted by MIGUEL ANGEL CHAPARRO (Member # 47) on :

Islamist dilemma threatens Pakistan
October 22, 2002

PAKISTAN is sinking into disarray as parties wrangle over the formation of a new government more than 10 days after elections produced a hung parliament.

An attempt by the pro-military Pakistan Muslim League, the newly elected National Assembly's single largest group, to link with Islamic groups hit a snag when hardliners raised the stakes, demanding the post of prime minister.

The United Council for Action, an alliance of five Islamic groups, has nominated pro-Taliban leader Maulana Fazalur Rehman as its candidate for the job. After its success in the elections, the alliance holds the balance of power in the divided assembly.

Its position has been further strengthened after former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League threw its support behind the Islamists.

It is unlikely the Islamists will win the prime ministership but the prospect they form a crucial part of a government raises a serious question about President Pervez Musharraf's promise to continue support for the US-led anti-terrorism drive, and his policy of social and economic reforms, which they oppose.

"The country is in the throes of a political crisis that raises serious questions about President Musharraf's own survival in power," one analyst said.

The Islamic leaders have issued a clear warning that they would not allow US troops to use Pakistani military facilities, and vowed to establish a strict Islamic system, reversing General Musharraf's social reforms.

"We will not allow any foreign troops on our soil," said Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani, head of the Islamic alliance. He also declared support for the "Afghan people".

Although he did not clarify who he meant, most analysts say it indicated support for Taliban remnants and the Afghan Pashtuns, who are not happy with President Hamid Karzai's administration in Kabul.

Such hardline declarations have caused serious concern to General Musharraf, as the Islamists not only hold the balance of power in the capital but are set to form governments in North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan, which border Afghanistan.

Islamic groups supported the Taliban during the US campaign in Afghanistan and have strong links with rebel Pashtun leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who is plotting to destabilise Kabul's regime.

Despite fundamental differences with the Islamists, General Musharraf has no choice but to let them form governments in the two border provinces, where US forces are helping Pakistani troops hunt al-Qa'ida fugitives.

"It is a Catch-22 situation for President Musharraf," a former senior Pakistani official said. "He has a massive problem at hand if he gives power to the Islamists, and is certain to face insurrection if he prevents them."