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October 8, 2005
U.S. Not Ready for Deadly Flu, Bush Plan Shows
By GARDINER HARRIS
WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.
A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says that a large outbreak that began in Asia would, because of modern travel patterns, likely reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."
If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed; riots would engulf vaccination clinics; and even power and food would be in short supply, the plan, obtained by The New York Times, says.
The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."
The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments, and hospitals and healthcare workers should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents now that would justify quarantining thousands.
The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.
It also calls for a domestic vaccine production capacity of 600 million doses within 6 months, more than 10 times the country's present capacity.
On Friday, President Bush asked the leaders of the nation's top six vaccine producers to the White House to cajole them into increasing their domestic vaccine capacity, and the flu plan demonstrates just how monumental a task these companies have before them.
In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush Administration's efforts to plan for a possible pandemic flu have become controversial, with many Democrats in Congress charging that the administration has not done enough.
Many have pointed to the lengthy writing process of the flu plan as evidence of this. Delays by the Administration have meant that antiviral medications that are an important part of pandemic preparations are now in short supply.
But while the administration's flu plan, officially called the Pandemic Influenza Strategic Plan, closely outlines how the Health and Human Services Department might react during a pandemic, it skirts many essential decisions, such as how the military might be deployed.
"The real shortcoming of the plan is that it doesn't say who's in charge," said a top health official who provided the plan to The New York Times. "We don't want to have a FEMA-like response, where it's not clear who's running what."
The official asked for anonymity because the plan is not supposed to be distributed. The draft provided to The Times is dated Sept. 30, and is stamped "for internal H.H.S. use only." The plan asks government officials to clear it by Oct. 6.
Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt, responded, "We recognize that the H.H.S. plan will be a foundation for a government-wide plan, and that process has already begun."
Ms. Pearson said that Mr. Leavitt has already had one-on-one meetings with other cabinet secretaries to begin the coordination process across the federal government. But she emphasized that the plan given to The Times is a draft and has not been finalized.
Mr. Leavitt is leaving Saturday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations, where he will meet with health and agriculture officials to discuss planning for a pandemic flu. He said at a briefing Friday that the administration's flu plan would officially be released soon. And he emphasized that the chances of the virus now killing birds in Asia becoming a human pandemic are low. A pandemic is global epidemic of disease.
"It may be a while longer, but pandemic will likely occur in the future," he said.
And he said that the administration's plan is an essential starting point for planning for state and local officials.
"It will require school districts to have a plan on how they will deal with school opening and closing," he said. "It will require the mayor to have a plan on whether or not they're going to ask the theaters not to have a movie."
"Over the next couple of months you will see a great deal of activity asking metropolitan areas, 'Are you ready.' If not, here is what must be done," he said.
A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage scenario for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, national guard and other national security groups were left out.
Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, police, firefighters and government leaders are next.
See link for full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/08/politics/08flu.html
Posts: 163 | From: Houston TX | Registered: Sep 2005
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