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JNW News
Quake risk threatens tens of thousands in Israel
By Jerusalem Newswire Editorial Staff
December 28, 2003
Jerusalem (jnewwire.com) - Scenes of earthquake-wrought devastation like those filling the world's television screens from Bam, Iran at the weekend could be relayed live at any moment from all of Israel's major population centers, including Jerusalem, as the result of just one seismic disaster.
Israeli geologists believe a major earthquake could strike without notice, and based on research have since the turn of the century predicted with near certainty the arrival of "the big one" in the next 50 years.
According to a recently released report exposing the shoddy standard of construction in the country, a quake of 6.0 or over on the Richter scale is expected to flatten an untold number of buildings, leaving tens of thousands of Israelis dead - possibly many more.
Even worse in Israel
The Bam earthquake struck in the early morning hours, when most of the residents were asleep. Measuring 6.3, it flattened nearly two-thirds of the historic town. Reports still coming out of the disaster area Sunday pegged the number of dead at anywhere between 10,000 and 40,000 people.
Because Bam is situated more than 190 km from the nearest next population center, damage and casualties were almost exclusively confined to the town itself, according to reports.
A similar quake in Israel, where the towns and cities almost all encroach on one another, could have even far more catastrophic results.
Active fault lines run throughout the small Jewish state due to the active tectonic structure of the Dead Sea Rift that runs the full length of Israel.
According to the Risk Management Solutions' (RMS) Israel Earthquake Model, the Jordan Valley Fault in the north of the country "has a high probability of generating a major earthquake."
The RMS believes that a large earthquake there "could create damaging ground motions in every major population center, all located within 70 km of the rift."
"Research suggests," says the RMS website, "that the Jordan Valley Fault generates magnitude 7 or larger earthquakes every 1000 years. The last major event on this segment occurred in 1033, increasing the current probability of a major earthquake."
Shock report
The Bam earthquake reminded Israelis of their own tenuous situation, coming as it did hard on the heels of a state commissioned report on building safety in Israel that sent shock waves across the land.
In colorful language the report, set up to investigate the May 2001 collapse of a Jerusalem wedding hall, described how "the poisoned goblet of flaws that the construction industry is drowning in, is overflowing."
According to The Jerusalem Post Sunday, the report found "that the entire system of construction in Israel is flawed to its core, and recommends sweeping changes in the industry…"
Despite the gravity of their findings, however, the panel that drew up the document said it doubted the government would take the matter seriously enough to implement its recommendations.
Continuous quakes
Seismologists say there are earthquakes taking place all the time in the Rift Valley, but most of them are too mild to be felt by man. They do, however, indicate the massive level of instability that exists.
Israel has a long documented record of destructive quakes dating back to 31 BC.
On July 11, 1927, a 6.2 magnitude temblor killed more than 300 people and damaged upward of 1000 buildings in Jericho, Nablus, Jerusalem, Nazareth, Tiberias, Lod and Ramla.
The last major earthquake to affect Israel was in 1995 and had its center deep under the Red Sea, about 70 km south of Eilat and caused only very minor structural damage.
It is estimated the worst-case scenario of the next major quake would cause Israel over $30 billion in economic damages and an unknown number of casualties.
The Hebrew prophet Zechariah foretells a final, cataclysmic earthquake when the Messiah comes to Jerusalem, an event that will split the Mount of Olives in two, from east to west, creating an enormous valley.
The book of Revelation speaks of a coming earthquake such as "had not occurred since men were on the earth."
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