Kindgo
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Mar. 15, 2003. 07:34 AM
Bush, Blair summit last chance to avoid war
Bush to tell Americans coalition set to roll
LINDA DIEBEL
STAFF REPORTER
WASHINGTON—George W. Bush arrives for an emergency summit in the Azores tomorrow while, back home, the White House pushes ahead with plans for an Oval Office address to a nation on the verge of war.
That speech could come as early as Monday or Tuesday night. If Bush gives Iraqi President Saddam Hussein an ultimatum to disarm — say 72 hours — that means war begins before the week is out.
At this late date, with diplomacy apparently dead, war appears stoppable only by a miracle in the Azores or Saddam's sudden death or exile.
White House officials, in public and private briefings, say the president's prime-time speech will explain that Bush flip-flopped on the need for a vote on another U.N. resolution authorizing war in order to help his friend and ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
He will tell the American people that, all other options being exhausted, "the coalition of the willing" is now ready to roll against Saddam.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said Bush, in his televised speech, would give U.N. inspectors, aid workers and journalists enough time to get out of Iraq, suggesting there'll be one last ultimatum to Saddam.
And so tomorrow, the president's plane will touch down on the same U.S. Air Force Base runway on the Portuguese island of Terceira where, 18 months ago, a Canadian pilot glided an out-of-gas Air Transat flight on a wing and a prayer to a safe landing.
Maybe these islands could be lucky for Bush, Blair and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar. They describe their objective as "the final pursuit" of a U.N. compromise to disarm Saddam.
But last night, signs weren't good. It looked like war.
U.S. Air Force heavy B-1 bombers began hitting targets inside Iraq's southern "no-fly" zone yesterday.
Spain and Germany urged their citizens to flee Iraq.
U.S. warships stormed into the northern Persian Gulf, in sight of Iraq.
Washington increased pressure on Ankara for another vote this weekend to authorize "northern front" access for U.S. troops through Turkey.
And 300,000 U.S. and U.K. soldiers are straining to go.
The Security Council route appears to be dead. At the White House, Fleischer dismissed outright a new Chilean proposal to give Saddam more time, calling it "a non-starter."
Nobody is sending any ultimatums to Saddam from the Azores.
Host Prime Minister Jose Manuel Barros insists there will be "no declaration of war." No war plans, no battlefield tactics, no military strategies will be unveiled on Portuguese soil. Not publicly, anyway.
In a statement outside the White House yesterday, Bush gave Blair a political gift by announcing — as the British leader has long sought — that the U.S. will unveil a Middle East "road map for peace" as soon as Yasser Arafat confirms a new Palestinian prime minister with "real authority."
Fleischer dismissed one reporter's suggestion that "war with Iraq would slow down this Middle East road map." And, at an off-the-record briefing for foreign journalists, state department officials denied that the timing of yesterday's announcement was chosen to give Blair — whose friendship with Bush has lately brought him so much grief — something to boast about at home.
But the past week's frantic trans-Atlantic negotiations increased charges the Bush White House has bungled U.N. diplomacy.
"It's a real train wreck. These are not our finest hours," said Richard Holbrooke, U.S. ambassador to the U.N. under Bill Clinton, of the last five weeks since Secretary of State Colin Powell addressed the Security Council.
Several analysts say the Bush team couldn't get their act together. Their comments, say analysts, are evidence the Bush team neither understands, nor values, the United Nations, and realized too late the importance of having the Security Council on side.
"This looks like an administration in chaos," one reporter told Fleischer at yesterday's press briefing.
"I disagree with your characterization," Fleischer replied.
Team members under Bush Vice-President Dick Cheney, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, Powell and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, among others, have changed the message often.
First, they said they wanted Iraqi disarmament, then "regime change," and then democracy in the Persian Gulf. That confused everybody, says Holbrooke, an opinion shared by other analysts.
First, there had to be a follow-up resolution to November's 1441, explicitly authorizing war, the White House said. Now there doesn't need to be one. The U.S. has the authority it needs under existing resolutions, according to the White House..
"The United States does not need a second resolution. But because it is important to our friends and allies, it's important to President Bush," said Fleischer, suggesting Bush wants it only because Blair wants it.
Blair, about to go to war with only 19 per cent of the British public behind him, really needed a second U.N. vote.
For Bush, the polls are better but still dodgy.
The most recent this week show 47 per cent support war without U.N. support, while 37 per cent say U.N. backing is necessary.
But now that Blair has said a second vote is all but lost, White House officials are working on a version of the president's address-to-the-nation in which he will say he decided to withdraw his challenge to Security Council nations to "show their cards" on Iraq, at the request of his allies.
Fleischer also denied Bush is worried about "wobbling" by Blair.
"I think the prime minister has shown nothing but strength and leadership in the cause of disarming Saddam Hussein," he said.
Even those opposing war say now it appears a fait accompli.
Asked on German television yesterday whether he believes war can be averted, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said he's pessimistic.
"I have doubts whether that can be achieved, although I cannot allow myself those doubts," he said.
Additional articles by Linda Diebel
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God bless,
Kindgo
Inside the will of God there is no failure. Outside the will of God there is no success.
Posts: 4320 | From: Sunny Florida | Registered: Jun 2002
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